Pakistan's photovoltaic market is facing a new variable as it imports over 47GW of Chinese modules.

A recent report by the UK-based energy think tank Ember shows that Pakistan added 27 GW of distributed photovoltaic (PV) capacity over the past two years, directly driving a 21% increase in the country's electricity demand.

Ember points out that between fiscal years 2023 and 2025, Pakistan's electricity demand is expected to grow by 33 TWh, with this increase entirely met by distributed PV generation. PV power generation has more than tripled, from 15 TWh in 2023 to 51 TWh in 2025.

Government grid generation declined by 3% during the same period, meaning that the share of distributed PV in the national electricity mix has also nearly tripled, rising from 10% to 28%.

This growth coincides with Pakistan's GDP growth of 5.2%. Ember states that distributed PV has brought the country's electrification rate close to the global average: the global average electrification rate is 22%, while Pakistan's is currently at 21.7%, an increase of 5 percentage points in two years, compared to a global average increase of only 0.8 percentage points during the same period.

Ember states that the 27GW of new installed capacity added between 2023 and 2025 is equivalent to the total capacity of all natural gas, coal, and oil-fired power plants ever built and put into operation in Pakistan. The report also notes that distributed photovoltaic (PV) installations are fast and inexpensive, making it the only technology capable of so profoundly changing Pakistan's energy landscape.

Ember's chief analyst, Dave Jones, stated, "Pakistan has strong energy demand, and PV perfectly meets this demand. Distributed PV installations are fast and cheap, even directly driving electricity demand growth. Many other emerging market countries also have pent-up energy demand, hampered by the problems and high costs of fossil fuels. The explosive growth of distributed PV in Pakistan provides experience demonstrating how quickly clean energy can grow and what benefits it can bring."

Ember data shows that by 2026, new PV installations have saved Pakistan over $12 billion in oil and gas import costs, while supporting economic growth in the country's agriculture, industry, and commerce sectors.

Data jointly released by Ember and Renewables First shows that Pakistan's total installed distributed photovoltaic (PV) capacity has reached 38 GW; as of June 2025, cumulative PV module exports from China to Pakistan reached approximately 47 GW.

Besides price and ease of installation, the booming development of Pakistan's small-scale solar industry has also been driven by the ripple effects of the 2022 European energy crisis. This crisis led to soaring electricity prices, grid problems causing power shortages, and a "generous" net metering policy—which, until recently, greatly incentivized the adoption of solar energy.

However, the report points out that currently, net metered solar power accounts for only a "minority" of Pakistan's installed PV capacity, far lower than off-grid and grid-connected solar power. Another report from Renewables First explains that due to the government's rush to build expensive energy solutions in the 2010s, leading to rising electricity prices, many Pakistani consumers turned to off-grid power.

In August 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, electricity demand on the national grid decreased by more than 17%. The Renewable Energy Priorities organization stated, "This highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior and a growing trend toward alternative energy sources to address rising electricity prices and grid-related challenges."