Shifting Trends in 2026 Module Flows: Europe Becomes the World's Second-Largest Market for Module Shipments

China will remain the primary destination for module supplies this year, though its market share is set to drop by 12 percentage points—falling from 47% in 2025 to 35% in 2026.

This shift mirrors the downward trend in China's installed solar capacity over the past 12 months, following the official implementation of a new pricing reform for grid-connected renewable energy in June 2025. In the first four months of 2026, domestic solar installations fell by 51% year-on-year, with only 50.9 GW of new capacity added, compared to nearly 105 GW during the same period in 2025.

Furthermore, forecasts released earlier this year by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) indicate that new solar installations in China will retreat from a record 315 GW in 2025 to a range of 180 GW–240 GW in 2026. Meanwhile, domestic solar and wind projects continue to face grid integration and curtailment challenges.

Outside of China, Europe is set to become the world's second-largest market for solar panel shipments in 2026; projects its market share will reach 21%, a 5-percentage-point increase from 2025. The European market is expected to slightly outperform other global regions, whose combined share of global module shipments will rise from 17% last year to 20%.

Finally, India’s market share is projected to rise by 4 percentage points—increasing from 8% in 2025 to 12% in 2026—while the shares for the United States and Japan will remain steady at 10% and 2%, respectively.